Mess3

Creator
Creator
Seonglae ChoSeonglae Cho
Created
Created
2026 Jan 17 22:19
Editor
Edited
Edited
2026 Mar 16 0:32
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Refs

3-state nonunifilar HMM

 
 
 
To predict the future nearly optimally, how do the required number of features and memory cost scale?
Perfect optimal prediction features (causal states) are usually infinite, making them impractical. Therefore, we need to use approximate features that nearly maintain predictive power. The required number of features and coding cost are then determined by the fractal dimension of the mixed-state simplex. Features obtained by coarse-graining mixed states can be much more efficient than the commonly used length-L Markov models.
arxiv.org
 
 

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