Seong-lae Chomajor life decisions depend critically on “happiness forecasts”
- how accurate are our future predictions
- what are the common mistakes & biases
Affective forecasting
Which Predict of
- valence (good/bad)
- specific emotions
- intensity & duration
prediction overestimate future duration and intensity - NA also
Without actual experience, making an accurate preference prediction by just imagining is very difficult - ex. diversification bias
diversification bias: diversity do not give happiness
Cold & Hot
- Cold state (Self -prediction) - very often when we make prediction
- Hot state (Experience)
Most Common Error
- we pay too much attention to a few salient features - things that stand out (attractive)
Important is matching - if will experience cold → choose cold, experience hot → choose hot
will you take grueling chemotherapy to live 3 more months? 10% versus actually 42%
Peak and End
This is not forecast, related to revisit
Excessive Weight on Climax or Finale
people tend to over-rely on salient moments (climax, finale), rather than weigh all moments equally in evaluating an event
“James Dean” Effect - Dream as if you will live forever Live as if you will die today Prefer Peek even life end either
Overestimate
People living in California are more happier than Midwest? → no difference
how happy would you be if your romantic relation breaks up (BU)? → no difference
How happy would you be after getting or not getting tenure? → less difference
Most Common errors
- Immune neglect overestimate the affective reactions
- Focalism - fail to consider the consequences of other changes
like this living great house do not make people happy
De-focalizing
Kind of corrigibility
remind other factors that effect their future happiness - think more realistic
de-focalizing
remind details : effective to not overestimates future events
change expectation
Potential cause of misprediction
- joint evaluation (JE) mode during prediction : compare multiple options & scenarios
- Single evaluation (SE) mode actual experience : takes place only in the option chosen (do not compare)
When in JE "quantitative difference" is overestimated
choice is occur at JE usually by quantity difference of various options (qualitative factor neglect which are important for happiness)
qualitative at SE and quantitative at JE needed
Acquisition vs. Consumption
Acquisition experience(or satisfaction) : relative - learned preference - has mean by other
consumption experience(or satisfaction) : absolute - inherit preference - has mean itself
- Gab between this two make misprediction
- relative comparison are not available then absolute value is important
Other Errors
1. Lay rationalism
want to seem rational by other people's sight (quantity > quality)
in here quality is emotional value
2. distinction bias
people over predict how much happiness two different values will bring (in JE) - easy to catch quantitative
positive task, large reward < negative task, small reward - contradict to expectation
Summary
we are accurate about events make happiness but do not accurate about the intensity and duration
- This means frequency is important
- happiness is SE, not JE - don’t overestimate quantitative difference → do not sacrifice quality to get quantity
Nothing you focus on now will make much difference to your long-term SWB - so do not over adjust to life, chase your passion