Prediction Market

Creator

Creator

Seonglae Cho

Created

Created

2025 May 20 0:14

Editor

Editor

Seonglae Cho

Edited

Edited

2026 Jun 9 17:38

Refs

Refs

A

Stock Market is essentially a type of prediction market focused on economy.

Prediction Markets

Manifold Market

The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets

Slot machines on the Las Vegas Strip return about 93 cents on the dollar. This is widely considered some of the worst odds in gambling. Yet on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market, traders have wagered vast sums on longshot contracts with historical returns as low as 43 cents on the dollar. Thousands of participants are voluntarily accepting expected values far lower than a casino slot machine to bet on their convictions.

https://www.jbecker.dev/research/prediction-market-microstructure

The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets

prediction markets are fundamentally flawed in their design and may lead to harmful social outcomes

Predicting our own demise

Creating society-destabilizing incentives for fun and profit!

https://reducibleerrors.com/prediction-markets/

Predicting our own demise

Globe

Polyglobe - Monitor the Situation

Real-time visualization of geopolitical markets and OSINT intelligence on an interactive globe.

https://www.pizzint.watch/polyglobe

Polyglobe - Monitor the Situation

issue

America is slow-walking into a Polymarket disaster

Why is the media obsessed with prediction markets?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/america-is-slow-walking-into-a-polymarket-disaster/ar-AA1Upfdb

America is slow-walking into a Polymarket disaster

All Bets Are On: The Rise of Prediction Markets

Billions of dollars are trading hands on sites like Polymarket and Kalshi, where people bet on everything from Taylor Swift’s wedding date to election outcomes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/19/technology/polymarket-kalshi-prediction-markets.html

All Bets Are On: The Rise of Prediction Markets

Backlinks

Future Open Source Funding World Model

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