Seonglae Cho
Pattern analysis, Imagination
Future prediction is integration, and rule decomposition is differentiation. Derivation is the process of obtaining local rules (direction/velocity/slope), while Integral is the process of advancing the state forward according to those rules. In other words, because differentiation is definable, it provides guidance on how to handle each specific data sample or each instance of reality. Inference is integration; it approximates the uncertain future prediction. Therefore, training is differentiation and inference is integration.
When people predict the future, especially futures driven by technology, there are common factors they tend to overlook. First, change occurs continuously. Any change in human society does not happen abruptly; there are countless intermediate stages, and it takes time for changes to spread spatially and temporally. Second, change is not limited to occurring through a few people or actors. People like stories, so they think that everything can be simply explained by a few actors and that all changes are determined by their decisions, but in reality, countless people's decisions are involved in change, making it very conservative and going through various stages. Finally, the speed of change in people's perceptions and behavioral patterns is extremely slow. People fundamentally find change bothersome and dislike it, so technology doesn't determine behavioral patterns—rather, behavioral patterns determine the direction of technological development. In other words, technological development moves greedily in a direction that minimizes short-term changes in habits, so even if there is a long-term vision, the resulting form of technology can be completely different as it adapts over a long period of time.
- The biggest force driving the market is also The Action Principle, and changes occur sequentially according to the principle of efficiency. (Slow take-off).
- Future prediction is physically impossible to measure accurately compared to past prediction due to the Uncertainty principle
Culture is state and technology is action for future state
Industry always follows Scalability rule.
If it occurs beyond prediction, interpretation should be limited to the minimum size area. (Occam's Razor, Hasty generalization)
Sometimes, because we live in a specific era, we tend to think that now is the hardest and worst generation.
Future Prediction Notion
We tend to overestimate the change that will occur in the next year and underestimate the change that will occur in the next decade.
we suffer more often in imagination than in reality
Society view
Why the Culture Wins: An Appreciation of Iain M. Banks - Sci Phi Journal
by Prof. Joseph Heath Many years ago, a friend of mine who knows about these sorts of things handed me a book and said “Here, you have to read this.” It was a copy of Iain M. Banks’s Use of Weapons. I glanced over the jacket copy. “What’s the Culture?” I asked. “Well,” she said, “it’s kind of hard to explain.” She settled in for what looked to be a long conversation. “In Thailand, they have this thing called the Dog. You see the Dog wherever you go, hanging around by the side of the road, skulking around markets. The
https://www.sciphijournal.org/index.php/2017/11/12/why-the-culture-wins-an-appreciation-of-iain-m-banks/
Human view
Why time seems to pass faster as we age - Inverted Passion
1/ I’ve been mega-obsessed with this feeling. A year as a 36-year-old seems so much shorter as compared to when I was a kid or even as a teen. It seems cosmically unfair – we have fewer years to live, and each year flies by faster. 2/ But, why is that happening? My tentative conclusion is that… Read More
https://invertedpassion.com/why-time-seems-to-pass-faster-as-we-age
Technology is Culture, for Future Prediction, you have to look at cultural drivers, not what academia is accomplishing
Technology is culture
We are experiencing one of the most significant technological breakthroughs of the last few decades. Call it what you will: AI, generative AI, large language models... But where does it come from? Academics will tell you that it stems from decades of mathematical efforts on campus. But think about it: if this were the best … Continue reading Technology is culture
https://lemire.me/blog/2026/01/01/technology-is-culture/
Dataset & AI
hn-time-capsule
karpathy • Updated 2026 Feb 12 0:4
Andrej Karpathy on Twitter / X
Quick new post: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsightI took all the 930 frontpage Hacker News article+discussion of December 2015 and asked the GPT 5.1 Thinking API to do an in-hindsight analysis to identify the most/least prescient comments. This took… pic.twitter.com/Ufexq5xmDX— Andrej Karpathy (@karpathy) December 10, 2025
https://x.com/karpathy/status/1998803709468487877
Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight
A vibe coding thought exercise on what it might look like for LLMs to scour human historical data at scale and in retrospect.
https://karpathy.bearblog.dev/auto-grade-hn/
HN Time Capsule
LLMs revisit Hacker News frontpages from 10 years ago (December 2015), with the benefit of hindsight.
Each day's articles and comments are analyzed by ChatGPT 5.1 (with thinking + browser tool) to compare what was said to what actually happened and users are graded on how prescient they were in retrospect. 30 articles per front page and 31 of them => 930 GPT 5.1 Thinking calls led to total cost of ~$60.
https://karpathy.ai/hncapsule/
Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance — LessWrong
This is a cross-post from https://www.250bpm.com/p/ada-palmer-inventing-the-renaissance. • …
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/doADJmyy6Yhp47SJ2/ada-palmer-inventing-the-renaissance
